Toronto Candidates - Third Week

Last week's post, Toronto Candidates - Second Week (April 2024), identifying typical patterns that have held in recent Candidates tournaments, predicted that GMs Gukesh and Nepomniachtchi were the two most likely players to win the event. Many observers were expecting Nepo to repeat his overwhelming success of the two most recent Candidates events, where he won both outright by a comfortable margin. Caissa, the goddess of chess, had another outcome in mind.

Going into the final round, Gukesh held a half-point lead over three of the pre-tournament favorites, Nepo included. Here's how Chessbase.com summarized the standings after the penultimate round (see below for a link to the full report).

Chessbase.com rd.13 report • Gukesh D, at 17, is a win away from becoming the next World Chess Championship challenger. The Indian prodigy beat Alireza Firouzja on Saturday to go into the final round of the Candidates Tournament as the sole leader. Three experienced contenders, who are also the top seeds in Toronto, stand a half point behind: Ian Nepomniachtchi, Hikaru Nakamura and Fabiano Caruana.

That summary didn't mention that all four of the leading players were due to play each other in the final round. In the crosstable, for each of the four players I've circled the first result against the only remaining opponent.

Top: Candidates R13: Gukesh beats Firoujza, enters final round as sole leader (chessbase.com; Carlos Alberto Colodro)
Bottom: Gukesh becomes World Championship challenger at 17! (ditto)

The report preceding the bottom crosstable started,

Chessbase.com rd.14 report • Gukesh D, an incredibly level-headed 17-year-old from Chennai, became the World Chess Championship challenger by winning the very strong 2024 Candidates Tournament in Toronto. Gukesh entered the final round as the sole leader, and safely held a draw with black against direct contender Hikaru Nakamura. Either Fabiano Caruana or Ian Nepomniachtchi could have caught the youngster with a win, but their direct encounter saw Caruana failing to make the most of a number of winning chances before agreeing to a 109-move draw in what turned out to be a titanic struggle.

For an interview with the winner by Chessbase.com, see The dream becomes a reality: Gukesh’s victory in a historic event (chessbase.com; Shahid Ahmed). It started,

Records were shattered and history was made at the 2024 FIDE Candidates. Two events -- Open [sic] and Women’s -- took place simultaneously for the first time at the same hall. We saw the first brother-sister duo, R Praggnanandhaa and R Vaishali, participating. In the end, D Gukesh broke a number of records: he was the youngest ever to win the Candidates Tournament and thus become the youngest ever challenger to the World Championship. Gukesh was interviewed by Sagar Shah ['ChessBase India’s co-founder and CEO'].

I'll have a wrapup report on the entire event and a separate report on the Women’s Candidates as soon as I get a chance. Congratulations to GM Gukesh on a historic victory that very few knowledgeable observers had expected.

Toronto Candidates - Second Week

Yesterday was a rest day after round ten of the 2024 Candidates tournament. A week ago, in Toronto Candidates - First Week (April 2024), I wrote,

Here is [a] chart, showing the [fifth] round in the 2022 tournament with the leader circled in red. Also shown is the overall standing after round five in the 2024 tournament as presented by a top chess news source. [...] Also circled in red in the top chart is the 2022 leader after ten rounds plus the winner at the end. After all three rounds, the leader was GM Nepomniachtchi.

Let's extract the 2022 portion of that chart and combine it with the standing after round ten in the 2024 tournament presented by the same chess news source. That gives the following chart.

Top: 2022 Candidates Tournament (m-w.com; 'Cumulative Score')
Bottom: Candidates R10: Nakamura and Caruana grab crucial wins (chessbase.com; Carlos Alberto Colodro)

Just like in the 'First Week' post, we see GMs Gukesh and Nepomniachtchi tied for first and second places, a half point ahead of third place. One big difference is that GM Caruana was alone in third after five rounds, but now shares that place with GMs Praggnanandhaa and Nakamura. That leaves five players (out of eight) with a chance of winning the event.

Only first place has real value -- the challenger's seat in the forthcoming World Championship match against Ding Liren, the reigning World Champion. Runners-up get money, but no glory.

Toronto Candidates - First Week

Yesterday was round five of the 2024 Candidates tournament. In the previous post, Toronto Candidates - Last Resources (April 2024), I mentioned charts, lots of charts:-

Chart showing the round-by-round progress of the participants in the 2013, 2014, and 2016 candidates tournaments [...] New chart for the 2018 and 2020 tournaments. I'll do the same for the next post by adapting the chart developed for the 2022 Candidates Tournament.

As promised, here is the adapted chart, showing the same round in the 2022 tournament with the leader circled in red. Also shown is the overall standing after round five in the 2024 tournament as presented by a top chess news source.

Top: 2022 Candidates Tournament (m-w.com; 'Cumulative Score')
Bottom: Candidates R5: Gukesh and Nakamura score in eventful round (chessbase.com; Carlos Alberto Colodro)

Also circled in red in the top chart is the 2022 leader after ten rounds plus the winner at the end. After all three rounds, the leader was GM Nepomniachtchi.

The choice of ten rounds for the second red circle was not an accident. That will be the point the tournament has reached at the time of the next post on this blog. Will the leader again be Nepomniachtchi, or maybe GM Gukesh, or maybe both, or maybe someone completely different? Past is prologue, except when it's not.

Toronto Candidates - Last Resources

The two FIDE Candidate tournaments start tomorrow. After a series of four consecutive preliminary posts, starting with Toronto Candidates - Kickoff (March 2024), we're one day away from the real deal. Since there is nothing to say about the results, let's list some of the resources.

First, here are some general references. The TWIC pages are good for getting a bird's eye view of the two main events -- the Candidates and the Women's Candidates -- without having to scroll past the dozens of large, extraneous photos that the other main chess sites use to illustrate their reports.

• FIDE Candidates 2024 (theweekinchess.com; TWIC)
• FIDE Women's Candidates Tournament 2024 (ditto)
• FIDE Candidates Tournament 2024: All The Information (chess.com)

Next, here are some predictions. The favorite appears to be Fabiano Caruana.

• 2024-03-29: Who The Stats Say Will Be The Next World Championship Challenger (chess.com; NathanielGreen)
• 2024-04-02: Candidates: Who will win? (chessbase.com)
• 2024-04-03: FIDE Candidates 2024: Preview and Predictions (lichess.org)
• 2024-04-03: Magnus Carlsen Ranks The Candidates Players (chess.com; TarjeiJS)

One of the traditions on this blog has been to track the round-by-round progress of the players compared with the winners of previous events. For example:-

• Madrid Candidates - First Week (June 2022) • 'Chart showing the round-by-round progress of the participants in the 2013, 2014, and 2016 candidates tournaments [...] New chart for the 2018 and 2020 tournaments'

I'll do the same for the next post -- which should also be a 'First Week' post -- by adapting the chart developed for 2022 Candidates Tournament (m-w.com; see 'Cumulative Score'). I've always been impressed at how fast the main contestants can be identified. There is only one real prize : first place and a crack at the World Championship. Second place is the same as last place.